India’s gems and jewellery sector witnessed a sharp surge in exports in July 2025, with outbound shipments rising 16% year-on-year as global buyers expedited orders ahead of an anticipated import tariff revision. According to provisional data from the Gem & Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC), the spike was driven primarily by higher demand from the United States, the UAE, and European markets.
Pre-Tariff Rush Boosts Orders
Industry insiders reveal that the sudden surge in July was partly due to overseas retailers and wholesalers pre-booking consignments before the Indian government’s expected announcement on revised import duties for raw materials like gold, silver, and polished diamonds.
“Buyers wanted to lock in prices before the tariff change. This created a temporary but significant bump in export volumes,” said a senior GJEPC official. He added that while this front-loading of orders may moderate figures for August, the long-term demand outlook remains stable.
Breakdown of the Growth
The cut and polished diamonds segment, which accounts for over 60% of India’s gem exports, recorded double-digit growth, supported by improved sentiment in the US retail market. Gold jewellery exports also rose, benefiting from rising festive demand in the Middle East.
Preliminary figures show:
- Cut & Polished Diamonds – up nearly 14% year-on-year.
- Plain Gold Jewellery – up 18% year-on-year.
- Studded Jewellery – up over 20%, driven by custom luxury orders from Europe.
Global Market Conditions
The rise in exports also reflects a gradual recovery in consumer spending in major markets after months of cautious buying. The US jewellery sector, which had seen softer sales earlier in 2024 due to inflationary pressures, reported a pick-up in orders for the holiday season.
Similarly, the UAE market — a major hub for gold trade — showed stronger buying activity ahead of its own festival and wedding season. European demand, led by Italy and France, has been stable, with luxury houses sourcing more from India due to competitive pricing and skilled craftsmanship.
Industry Reactions
Exporters have welcomed the July numbers but caution that growth could flatten once the tariff changes take effect. “We had a fantastic month, but much of it is advance buying. The real test will be in the next quarter when tariffs adjust and market sentiment normalises,” said a Mumbai-based diamond exporter.
The GJEPC has urged the government to ensure that any tariff hike does not hurt India’s competitive edge in global markets, particularly against rivals like China and Thailand.
Government’s Tariff Plans
The Ministry of Finance is expected to announce its decision on revised import duties later this month. Reports suggest the hike could be aimed at curbing gold imports to manage the current account deficit. However, industry players warn that higher duties may encourage unofficial imports and impact the formal trade ecosystem.
Outlook for the Rest of 2025
While July’s performance has provided a positive boost, analysts expect exports to grow at a more moderate pace in the coming months. Seasonal demand during Diwali and Christmas should support sales, but much will depend on the global economic climate, currency fluctuations, and the final tariff structure.
With India holding a dominant position in the global gems and jewellery trade, the industry remains optimistic that craftsmanship quality and supply chain strength will help sustain demand, even if short-term challenges arise.
